Velavan et al developed a simple risk score for predicting short term mortality in a patient with heart failure. The authors are from the multiple universities in Europe.
Parameters:
(1) age
(2) left ventricular systolic dysfunction (LVSD)
(3) therapy with a beta-blocker
(4) therapy with angiotensive converting enzyme inhibitor (ACEI) or angiotensin receptor blocker (ARB)
(5) serum creatinine
Parameter
Finding
Points
age of the patient
<= 70 years
0
71 to 75 years
1
76 to 80 years
2
> 80 years
3
LV systolic dysfunction
none
0
mild
1
moderate
2
severe
3
treatment with beta-blocker
yes
0
no
2
therapy with ACEI or ARB
yes
0
no
2
serum creatinine
normal
0
elevated
1
risk score =
= SUM(points for all 5 parameters)
Interpretation:
• minimum score: 0
• maximum score: 11
• The higher the score the greater the mortality by 12 weeks.
The data in Figure 1 is approximated by the following line:
percent mortality by 12 weeks =
= (3.8 * (risk score)) - 1.8
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