Velavan et al developed a simple risk score for predicting short term mortality in a patient with heart failure. The authors are from the multiple universities in Europe.
Parameters:
(1) age
(2) left ventricular systolic dysfunction (LVSD)
(3) therapy with a beta-blocker
(4) therapy with angiotensive converting enzyme inhibitor (ACEI) or angiotensin receptor blocker (ARB)
(5) serum creatinine
Parameter |
Finding |
Points |
---|---|---|
age of the patient |
<= 70 years |
0 |
|
71 to 75 years |
1 |
|
76 to 80 years |
2 |
|
> 80 years |
3 |
LV systolic dysfunction |
none |
0 |
|
mild |
1 |
|
moderate |
2 |
|
severe |
3 |
treatment with beta-blocker |
yes |
0 |
|
no |
2 |
therapy with ACEI or ARB |
yes |
0 |
|
no |
2 |
serum creatinine |
normal |
0 |
|
elevated |
1 |
risk score =
= SUM(points for all 5 parameters)
Interpretation:
• minimum score: 0
• maximum score: 11
• The higher the score the greater the mortality by 12 weeks.
The data in Figure 1 is approximated by the following line:
percent mortality by 12 weeks =
= (3.8 * (risk score)) - 1.8
Purpose: To determine the risk of short term mortality in a patient with heart failure using the risk score of Velavan et al.
Specialty: Cardiology
Objective: risk factors, severity, prognosis, stage, complications
ICD-10: I50,