Model for Predicting Risk of Death within 7 Days for Terminal Cancer Patient

 

Patient selection: terminal cancer admitted to hospice

 

Parameters:

(1) gender

(2) type of cancer

(3) ECOG score from 0 to 4

(4) jaundice

(5) peripheral edema

(6) fever

(7) respiratory rate in breaths per minute

(8) heart rate in beats per minute

(9) intervention tube (percutaneous nephrostomy tube, percutaneous transhepatic cholangiodrain, pig-tail catheter for draining ascites or pleural fluid, feeding tube; exclusion nasogastric tube)

(10) mean for muscle strength in the 4 extremities scored based on the MRC grades (0 indicatinig no movement to 5 indicating normal strength)

Parameter	Finding	Points
gender	male	1
	female	0
type of cancer	hepatic	1
	non-hepatic	0
jaundice	yes	1
	no	0
edema	none, Grade 1 or Grade 2	0
	Grade 3	1
fever	yes (core temperature >= 37.5°C)	1
	no	0
intervention tube	yes	1
	no	0

 

where:

• Grade 3 edema is edema >= 1 finger breadth.

 

X =

= (0.77 * (points for gender)) + (0.59 * (points for cancer type)) + (0.82 * (ECOG status)) + (0.59 * (points for jaundice)) + (0.54 * (points for edema)) + (0.95 * (points for fever)) + (0.07 * (respiratory rate)) + (0.01 * (heart rate)) - (0.92 * (points for intervention tube)) - (0.37 * (points for mean muscle strength)) - 6.52

 

probability of dying within 7 days =

= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * X)