End-Stage Renal Disease Risk Model

Description

Bansal et al reported a model for predicting 5-year risk of death without end-stage renal disease (ESRD) in an older adult with chronic kidney disease (CKD). This can help guide management of the kidney disease in light of comorbidities. The authors are from multiple institutions in the United States.

Patient selection: age >= 70 years with CKD (eGFR < 60 mL per min per 1.73 square m)

Outcome: 5-year mortality without ESRD

Parameters:

(1) age in years

(2) sex

(3) race

(4) eGFR in mL per min per 1.73 square meter

(5) urine albumin to creatinine ratio in mg/g

(6) diabetes mellitus

(7) smoking history

(8) history of heart failure

(9) history of stroke

Parameter	Finding	Points
age in years	70 to 74 years	0
	75 to 79 years	1
	80 to 84 years	2
	>= 85 years	4
sex	female	0
	male	1
race	Black	0
	White	1
eGFR	50 to 59	0
	40 to 49	1
	30 to 39	2
	< 30	4
urine albumin to creatinine ratio	< 30 mg/g	0
	>= 30 mg/g	1
diabetes	no	0
	yes	1
smoking	never	0
	former	1
	current	2
history of heart failure	no	0
	yes	2
history of stroke	no	0
	yes	1

total score =

= SUM(points for all 9 parameters)

Interpretation:

• minimum score: 0

• maximum score: 17

• The risk of mortality increases with the score.

Total Score	Risk of 5-Year Mortality
0	3.9%
1	5.9%
2	8.8%
3	13.2%
4	19.4%
5	28%
6	40%
7	54%
8	69%
9	84%
>= 10	94%

Performance:

• The area under the ROC curve was 0.69.

To read more or access our algorithms and calculators, please log in or register.

Description

Specialty

Objective

ICD-10

Purpose: To perdict the 5-year mortality rate without end-stage renal disease (ESRD) for an older adult with chronic kidney disease using the model of Bansal et al.

Description

Specialty

Objective

ICD-10