Yamagishi et al developed a formula for predicting the prognosis for a patient with acute liver failure. The authors are from Keio University in Japan.
(1) serum total bilirubin in mg/dL
(2) liver volume based on computer tomography in mL
(3) liver volume based on body surface area (Urata et al, see 11.17.04)
= (4.5734 * (liver volume by CT scan) / (liver volume by BSA)) - (0.15234 * (total serum bilirubin)) - 2.6213
• A Z score < 0 predicts a poor prognosis.
• The sensitivity is 94% and specificity 77%.
• The area under the ROC curve is 0.88.
• The PPV is 84% and NPV 91%.
The authors also developed a second equation wit a similar area under the ROC curve:
= (5.1912 * (liver volume by CT scan) / (liver volume by BSA)) - (0.07967 * (total serum bilirubin)) + (0.0002824 * (ALT in IU/L)) - (0.04547 * (number of days before hepatic encephalopathy)) - 3.7869
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Purpose: To evaluate a patient with acute liver failure using the prognostic formula of Yamagishi et al.
Objective: imaging studies, other testing, severity, prognosis, stage