Discriminant Function for Patient with Fulminant Hepatitis

 

NOTE: This represents the reduced score in Table IV. A complete score is in Table III.

 

Parameters:

(1) age in years

(2) gender

(3) duration of history in days

(4) hepatitis B status

(5) disulfiram hepatitis

(6) prothrombin index in units

(7) serum albumin in µmol/L

(8) serum potassium in mmol/L

(9) blood glucose in mmol/L

(10) leukocyte count in 10^9/L

(11) blood group

Parameter	Finding	Points
gender	male	1
	female	0
hepatitis B status	absent	0
	present	1
disulfiram hepatitis	absent	0
	present	1
blood group	Type O	1
	other (A, B, AB)	0

 

where:

• The prothrombin index has a reference range of 0.7 to 1.3. Patients tended to have values below 0.5.

• The molecular weight of albumin is around 66,460 daltons. 1 g/dL equals 150.5 µmol/L.

 

score =

= (0.015 * (age in years)) - (0.27 * (points for gender)) + (0.0081 * (number of days)) + (0.31 * (points for hepatitis B)) + (0.83 * (points for disulfiram)) - (1.28 * (prothrombin index)) - (0.0019 * (serum albumin in µmol/L)) + (0.12 * (potassium in mmol/L)) + (0.089 * (glucose in mmol/L)) + (0.032 * (leukocyte count in 10^9/L)) - (0.25 * (points for blood group)) - 0.45

 

Discriminant Score	Posterior Probability of Survival
< 0	100%
0 - 0.25	> 90%
0.5	50%
0.75 - 1.0	< 10%
> 1.0	0%

from Figure 2, page 95 (Christensen et al)

 

where:

• The posterior probability of survival is affected by the prior probability.

 

Limitations:

• The outcome prediction is based on care in 1984.