Prognostic Score of Chiu et al for a Patient with a Bleeding Peptic Ulcer

Patient selection: bleeding peptic ucler undergoing therapeutic endoscopy

Parameters:

(1) age of the patient

(2) comorbidities present (14 conditions listed on page 312 - essentially any significant medical condition)

(3) number of comorbidities present

(4) hematemesis

(5) initial systolic blood pressure in mm Hg

(6) in-hospital bleeding

(7) Helicobacter pylori

(8) rebleeding

(9) need for operation

CUHK (Chinese University of Hong Kong) prediction score =

= SUM(points for all 9 parameters) + 1

where:

• The addition of the 1 probably is to keep the scrore from having a -1 value.

• The comorbidities could be combined into a single parameter.

Interpretation:

• minimum score: 0

• maximum score: 11

• The higher the score the greater the risk of mortality.

• No deaths were seen in patients with a score < 3..

Performance:

• The area under the ROC is 0.842 which indicates fair performance.