Description

The Cedars-Sinai Medical Center Predictive Index is a scoring system providing initial risk assessment for patients with upper gastrointestinal tract hemorrhage.


Four variables identified as affecting risk:

(1) esophagogastroduodenoscopy (EGD) findings

(2) time from onset of bleeding

(3) hemodynamic status

(4) comorbidities

 

Parameter

Finding

Points

EGD findings

persistent upper GI hemorrhage

4

 

varices

4

 

upper GI cancer

4

 

peptic ulcer disease with visible vessel, nonbleeding

2

 

peptic ulcer disease with stigmata of recent hemorrhage

2

 

peptic ulcer disease with spot or clot

1

 

erosive disease with stigmata of recent hemorrhage

1

 

angiodysplasia

1

 

peptic ulcer disease with no stigmata of recent hemorrhage

0

 

Mallory-Weiss tear, nonbleeding

0

 

erosive disease

0

 

normal examination

0

time since onset of symptoms prior to hospitalization

>= 48 hours

0

 

< 48 hours

1

 

in hospital

2

hemodynamics

stable

0

 

intermediate

1

 

unstable

2

comorbidities

0 or 1

0

 

2

1

 

3

2

 

4 or more

3

 

 

UGI Disorder

Endoscopic Finding

Description

peptic ulcer disease

 

white based break in mucosal surface with obvious depth

 

clean base with no stigmata of recent hemorrhage

flat ulcer base without pigmentation

 

spot

nonelevated red, brown or black pigmentation in ulcer bed

 

adherent clot

thrombus overlying ulcer bed resistant to endoscopic washing

 

visible vessel, nonbleeding

raised, rounded, relatively smooth-surfaced red or blue pigmented plug in ulcer crater

 

active

pulsatile blood flow or continuous oozing during endoscopic exam

Mallory-Weiss tear

 

linear vertical breaks in mucosal surface at GE junction; bleeding or nonbleeding

erosive disease

 

superficial break in mucosal surface without obvious depth

 

no stigmata of recent hemorrhage

white-based lesions without associated thrombus, friability or oozing

 

stigmata of recent hemorrhage

pigment-based lesions with associated thrombus, friability or intermittent oozing of extensive surface area

angiodysplasia

 

intramucosal pigmented vessels; bleeding or nonbleeding

varices

 

tortuous columns of blue pigmented submucosal vessels; bleeding or nonbleeding

upper GI cancer

mass

elevated submucosal lesion without break in mucosa or pigmentation; bleeding or nonbleeding

normal endoscopy

no abnormality seen

 

active bleeding

 

no diagnosis made due to incomplete visualization from bleeding

 

 

Comorbidity

Conditions

cardiac disease

dysrhythmia

 

acute myocardial infarction

 

ischemic chest pain

 

symptomatic congestive heart failure requiring therapy

hepatic disease

acute alcoholic hepatitis

 

cirrhosis

pulmonary disease

acute respiratory failure

 

pneumonia

 

symptomatic obstructive lung disease requiring therapy

renal disease

serum creatinine > 4 mg/dL

 

dialysis therapy

neurologic disease

delirium

 

dementia

 

stroke within 6 months

malignancy

known solid tumor

sepsis

 

major surgery

within 30 days

age

> 60 years

unstable

meets criteria for continued in hospital treatment

 

 

predictive index score =

= (points for EGD findings) + (points for time) + (points for hemodynamics) + (points for comorbidities)

 

Interpretation:

• minimum score 0

• maximum score 11

 

Predictive Index Score

Risk

0, 1, 2

low

3 or 4

intermediate

>= 5

high

 


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