Chen et al used multi-variate analysis to develop a model for predicting mortality in a patient with cirrhosis and acute upper gastrointestinal hemorrhage. This can help identify patients who may benefit from more aggressive management. The authors are from Chang Gung Memorial Hospital and University in Taipei, Taiwan.


Patient selection: cirrhosis (usually due to chronic viral hepatitis B) with acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding from varices



(1) Child-Pugh score (from 5 to 15)

(2) mean arterial blood pressure in mm Hg

(3) serum creatinine in mg/dL


X =

= (0.663 * (Child Pugh score)) - (0.070 * (mean arterial pressure)) + (0.429 * (serum creatinine)) - 2.285


probability of death =

= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * X))


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