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European Prognostic Index in Primary Biliary Cirrhosis

Purpose: To use a prognostic index to predict the prognosis in patients with primary biliary cirrhosis (PCB).

Description

The prognosis in patients with primary biliary cirrhosis (PBC) can be estimated by the use of a prognostic index using both clinical and laboratory findings. The derivation of the index requires a liver biopsy.


Parameters:

(1) serum bilirubin in µmol/L

(2) age in years

(3) presence or absence of cirrhosis on liver biopsy

(4) serum albumin in g/L

(5) presence or absence of central cholestasis on liver biopsy

(6) therapy with azathioprine or not

 

Parameter

Finding

Points

cirrhosis

present

1

 

absent

0

central cholestasis

present

1

 

absent

0

therapy

with azathioprine

0

 

without azathioprine

1

 

 

prognostic index =

= (2.51 * LOG10 (serum bilirubin in µmol/L)) + (0.0069 * EXP (((age in years) - 20) / 10)) + (0.88 * (cirrhosis points)) - (0.050 * (serum albumin in g/L)) + (0.68 * (central cholestasis points)) + (0.52 * (therapy points))

 

Interpretation:

• The higher the score, the more serious the patient's condition and the worse the prognosis.

 

Survival

 

Index

Median Survival in years

< 2

> 9 years

2 to 5

12.95 - (2.2 * (index)) years

> 5 to 7

(0.25 * ((index) ^2)) - (3.75 * (index)) + 14.4 years

> 7

< 6 months

after Figure 5 page 1089

 

Index

5 year survival

<=0

> 98%

0 to 3

0.981 - (0.004 * (index)) - (0.03 * ((index) ^2))

> 3 to 4.66

1.78434 - (0.361446 * (index))

> 4.66

< 10%

after Figure 4, page 1089


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Specialty

Objective

ICD-10