Description

Hijazi et al reported a nomogram for predicting 1-year mortality in patients with atrial fibrillation using the ABC (age, biomarker, clinical history) death risk score. This can help to identify a patient who may benefit from more aggressive management. The authors are from Uppsala University, Duke University, Population Health Research Institute, Thomas Jefferson Medical College and Boston University.


Patient selection: atrial fibrillation from 22 to 95 years

 

Parameters:

(1) age in years

(2) heart failure

(3) NT-proBNP in ng/L from 5 to 21000 (Roche Cobas)

(4) GDF-15 in ng/L from 400 to 10000 (Roche Elecys)

(5) cardiac troponin T high sensitivity, in ng/L from 3 to 200 (ARCHITECT, Abbott Diagnostics)

 

Age

Points

22 to 65 years

0

65 to 80 years

(0.060454*(age))-3.9295

80 to 95 years

(0.23776*(age))-18.127

 

 

Congestive Heart Failure

Points

no

0

yes

1.53

 

points for NT-proBNP from 5 to 200 = 0

 

points for NT-proBNP from 200 to 21000 =

= (1.3036 * (LOG10(NTproBNP)^2)) - (4.5158*LOG10(NTproBNP)) + 3.4281

 

points for GDF15 =

= (-2.7813 * (LOG10(GDF15)^2)) + (23.252 * LOG10(GDF15)) - 41.601

 

points for troponin T =

= (-0.86235 *(LOG10(troponin)^2)) + (7.7513 * LOG10(troponin)) - 3.4146

 

total score =

= SUM(points for all 5 parameters)

 

Interpretation:

minimum score: 0

maximum score: 31.1

 

Total Score

1-Year Mortality Rate

0 to 26.7

(0.0078709*((score)^3)) - (0.17888 * ((score)^2)) + (1.5393 * (score)) -3.1972

> 26.7

> 60%

 

Performance:

The area under the ROC curve is 0.74.


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