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Prognostic Nomogram of van Geel et al for Predicting Absolute Risk of Fracture at 5 and 10 Years for a Postmenopausal Woman

Purpose: To predict the risk of osteoporotic fracture for a postmenopausal woman using the nomogram of van Geel et al.

Description

van Geel et al developed a nomogram for predicting the risk of osteoporotic fracture in postmenopausal women. This can help to identify a woman who may benefit from more aggressive management to restore bone density. The authors are from Maastricht University and Garvan Institute of Medical Research in Sydney, Australia.


Patient selection: post-menopausal woman from 50 to 80 years of age

 

Parameters:

(1) age of the patient in years

(2) lumbar spine bone mineral density (BMD) T score

(3) history of fracture after menopause

 

points for age =

= (0.753 * (age in years)) - 37.667

 

points for BMD T score from 4 to -6 =

= (62.2 - (6.3 * (T score))

 

Parameter

Finding

Points

history of fracture

none

0

 

> 5 years ago

29

 

<= 5 years

51

 

total score =

= SUM(points for all 3 parameters)

 

Interpretation:

• minimum score: 0

• maximum score: 174

• The higher the score the greater the risk of a fracture.

 

Total Score

Probability of Fracture within 5 Years

< 64

< 5%

64 to 163

(0.003201 * ((points)^2)) - (0.3785 * (points)) + 16.28

> 163

> 40%

 

 

Total Score

Probability of Fracture within 10 Years

< 36

< 5%

36 to 159

(0.003469 * ((points)^2)) - (0.2382 * (points)) + 9.522

> 159

> 60%

 


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Specialty

Objective

ICD-10