Description

Ioannou developed a model for predicting graft survival after liver transplantation in patients with end-stage liver disease secondary to HCV. The author is from the University of Washington in Seattle and the Veterans Affairs Puget Sound Health Care System


 

Parameters – Donor Characteristics:

(1) age of the donor in years

(2) ethnicity of the donor

(3) gender of the donor

(4) cold ischemia time in hours

 

Parameters – Recipient Characteristics:

(5) body mass index (BMI)

(6) age

(7) UNOS urgency category

(8) gender

(9) race and ethnicity

(10) diabetes

(11) MELD score

 

Donor Parameter

Finding

Points

ethnicity

white

0

 

black

0.02

 

Hispanic

0.05

 

other

0.11

gender

male

0

 

female

0.08

cold ischemia time

< 6.4 hours

0

 

6.4 to 8.79 hours

0.01

 

8.8 to 11.29 hours

0.16

 

11.3 to 14.29 hours

0.23

 

14.3 to 59.99 hours

0.17

 

 

Recipient Parameter

Finding

Points

body mass index

15 to 24.99

0

 

25 to 29.99

-0.15

 

30 to 34.99

-0.20

 

35 to 39.99

-0.20

 

40 to 54.99

-0.11

age

18 to 42.99

0

 

43 to 49.99

-0.06

 

50 to 56.99

-0.13

 

57 to 62.99

0.11

 

>= 63

0.20

UNOS urgency

UNOS 1

0.23

 

other

0

gender

male

0

 

female

0.06

ethnicity

white

0

 

black

0.25

 

Hispanic

0

 

other

-0.24

diabetes

absent

0

 

present

0.18

MELD score

6 to 10.7

0

 

10.8 to 14.2

0

 

14.3 to 19.3

0.08

 

19.4 to 26.9

0.20

 

>= 27

0.50

 

X =

= (0.000175 * (((age in years)^2) – 1444)) + SUM(points for the other parameters)

 

hazard ratio =

= EXP(X)

 

survival for the graft at time t) =

= (baseline survival at time t) ^ (hazard ratio)

 

Time Period

Baseline Survival

1 year

0.86

2 years

0.81

5 years

0.69

 


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