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Risk Score of Steyerberg et al for 30 Day Mortality After Surgery for Esophageal Cancer

Purpose: To evaluate a patient for 30-day surgical mortality following resection of an esophageal cancer based on the risk score of Steyerberg et al.

Description

Steyerberg et al developed a risk score for predicting mortality within 30 days of surgical resection of an esophageal cancer. This can help identify a patient who may benefit from an alternative or novel therapy. The authors are from Erasmus University (Rotterdam, NL), Eindhoven Comprehensive Cancer Center (Eindhoven, NL) and Dana-Farber Cancer Center (Boston, USA).


Parameters:

(1) age in years

(2) comorbidities (5)

(3) neoadjuvant therapy

(4) number of esophagectomies done per year at the hospital

 

Parameter

Finding

Points

age in years

50

-1

 

65

0

 

80

1

comorbidity, pulmonary

absent

0

 

present

1

comorbidity, cardiovascular

absent

0

 

present

1

comorbidity, diabetes

absent

0

 

present

1

comorbidity, hepatic

absent

0

 

present

1

comorbidity, renal

absent

0

 

present

1

neoadjuvant therapy

chemoradiotherapy

1

 

radiotherapy

1.5

annual hospital case volume

low (<= 1)

0

 

intermediate (1.1 to 2.5)

-0.5

 

high (2.6 to 49)

-1.5

 

very high (>= 50)

-2

 

points for age =

= ((age in years) / 15) - (13 / 3) = (0.0667 * (age in years)) - 4.333

 

total score =

= SUM(points for all of the parameters)

 

X =

= (0.32 * (total score)) - 2.41

 

probability of 30-day surgical mortality =

= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * X))


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Specialty

Objective

ICD-10