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Prediction Rule of Sprengers et al for Cardiovascular Events in a Patient with Peripheral Arterial Disease (PAD, SMART Model)

Purpose: To identify a patient with peripheral arterial disease (PAD) at risk for other cardiovascular disorders using the model of Sprengers et al.

Description

Sprengers et al developed a prediction model for patients with peripheral arterial disease (PAD). This can help to identify a patient at risk for myocardial infarction, stroke or other secondary cardiovascular events. The authors are participants in the SMART (Second Manifestations of ARTerial disease) study.


Patient selection: peripheral arterial disease

 

Parameters:

(1) age in years

(2) history of coronary artery disease (CAD)

(3) history of cerebrovascular disease (CVD)

(4) systolic blood pressure in mm Hg

(5) current or former smoker

(6) serum creatinine in µmol/L

(7) HDL cholesterol in mmol/L

(8) lowest resting ankle to brachial pressure index

 

Parameter

Finding

Points

age in years

<= 55 years

0

 

> 55

((age) - 55) * 8

history of CAD

no

0

 

yes

86

history of CVD

no

0

 

yes

86

systolic blood pressure

 

(mm Hg)

current or former smoker

no

0

 

yes

107

serum creatinine

 

(serum creatinine)

serum HDL cholesterol

 

(-74) * (HDL cholesterol)

lowest ABP index

 

(-157) * (index)

 

total score =

= SUM(points for all 8 parameters)

 

Interpretation:

• minimum score: < 0

• maximum score: > 1000

• The higher the score the greater the risk for other cardiovascular disease.

 

Total Score

Risk Group

Risk in 5 Years

<= 100

low

1%

101 to 225

moderate

5%

226 to 350

high

12%

> 350

very high

28%

 


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Specialty

Objective

ICD-10