UKPDS Equation for Predicting Death After an Acute Myocardial Infarction in a Patient with Type 2 Diabetes

Parameters:

(1) age in years

(2) percent hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) from 0 to 100

(3) systolic blood pressure

(4) number of years between diagnosis of diabetes and acute MI (time to event)

X =

= (0.048 * ((age) - 55)) + (0.178 * ((percent HbA1c) - 6.86)) + (0.141 * ((systolic blood pressure) - 141) / 10) + (0.104 * (years since diagnosis diabetes)) - 0.713

probability of death following an acute MI =

= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * X))

An additional risk factor for death was the level of urinary albumin in mg/L.

Since age and duration of diabetes are not subject to change, the variables open to intervention are hemoglobin A1c and systolic blood pressure, as well as albuminuria.

Limitations:

• The method for measuring HbA1c was not specified. Results can vary between methods.