Chyu et al reported a four-variable score for predicting risk for a patient with heart failure. This can help to identify a patient who may require more aggressive management. The authors are from the University of California at Los Angeles and University of Washington Seattle.
Patient selection: heart failure
Parameters:
(1) serum B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) in pg/mL
(2) peak oxygen consumption by cardiopulmonary exercise testing
(3) New York Health Association (NYHA) class
(4) use of angiotensin-converting enzyme (ACE) inhibitor or angiotensin receptor blocker (ARB)
Parameter
Finding
Points
use of ACEI or ARB
no
0
yes
-0.674253
peak oxygen consumption
missing
1.34628994
< 6 mL per kg per min
1.1921019
6 to 10
0.76482202
10 to 16
0.58420695
16 to 20
0.181266
NYHA
I
0
II
0.541975
III
0.799275
IV
1.247278
serum BNP
0.461502 * LN(BNP)
score =
= SUM(points for all of the parameters)
Score
Quartile
0.69 to 3.14
1
3.15 to 3.92
2
3.93 to 4.74
3
4.75 to 6.56
4
predicted survival at time t =
= EXP(-0.00221 * (t) * EXP(score))
Performance:
• The area under the ROC curve is 0.79.
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