Patient selection: critically-ill patient in a resource-poor setting
Parameters:
(1) emergency surgery
(2) respiratory rate in breaths per minute, over range from 4 to 40
(3) systolic blood pressure in mm Hg, over range from 30 to 260
(4) Glasgow Coma Score (GCS, from 3 to 15)
(5) serum BUN in mg/dL, over range from 10 to 610
(6) hemoglobin in g/dL, over range from 4 to 16
(7) vasoactive (vasopressor) use
(8) mechanical ventilation
|
Parameter
|
Finding
|
Points
|
|
emergency surgery
|
no
|
0
|
|
|
yes
|
0.437
|
|
respiratory rate
|
|
0.060 * (respirations)
|
|
systolic blood pressure
|
|
-0.019 * (SBP)
|
|
GCS
|
|
-0.099 * GCS
|
|
serum BUN
|
|
0.006 * (BUN)
|
|
hemoglobin
|
|
-0.093 * (hemoglobin)
|
|
vasoactive use
|
no
|
0
|
|
|
yes
|
1.057
|
|
mechanical ventilation
|
no
|
0
|
|
|
yes
|
1.429
|
X =
= SUM(points for all 8 parameters) - 6.164
probability of mortality =
= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * X))
NOTE: When the model is executed as published, results do not make sense. A possibility is that the model constant should be 0.164 or 0.6164.
Performance:
• The area under the ROC curve is 0.82.
