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Trauma Models of Nakahara et al: Using Number of Severe Injuries

Description

Nakahara reported 2 equations for predicting survival in a patient with trauma. One uses the number of severe injuries. The authors are from St. Marianna University, University of Tsukuba, and National Center for Global Health and Medicine Hospital in Japan.


Patient selection: trauma patient

 

Parameters:

(1) age

(2) number of serious injuries

(3) AVPU status

 

Parameter

Finding

Points

age

< 55 years

0

 

>= 55 years

1

number of serious injuries

0

0

 

1

1

 

2+

2

AVPU

A

3

 

V

2

 

P

1

 

U

0

 

X =

= (1.68 * (points for AVPU)) - (1.12 * (points for injuries)) - (0.96 * (points for age)) + 0.64

 

probability of survival =

= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * X))


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