Description

A risk index using readily available clinical data can be used to triage patients presenting with acute myocardial infarction associated with ST-elevation (STEMI). This can help identify low, intermediate and high risk patients for short term mortality. It was developed out of the InTIME II trial.


 

Patient selection: Patients were enrolled within 6 hours of symptom onset.

 

Patient exclusion criteria: any history of cerebrovascular disease, systolic blood pressure > 180 mm Hg, diastolic blood pressure > 110 mm Hg, cardiogenic shock, or increased risk of severe bleeding.

 

Parameters:

(1) age in years (mortality increases with age)

(2) heart rate in beats per minute (mortality increases with heart rate)

(3) systolic blood pressure in mm Hg (mortality higher with low blood pressures)

 

risk index =

= (heart rate) * (((age) / 10)^2) / (systolic blood pressure) =

= (heart rate) * ((age)^2) / (100 * (systolic blood pressure)

Risk Index

Risk Group

24 Hour Mortality Rate

In-Hospital Mortality Rate

30 Days Mortality Rate

<= 12.5

1

0.2%

0.6%

0.8%

12.51 – 17.5

2

0.4%

1.5%

1.9%

17.51 – 22.5

3

1.0%

3.1%

3.3%

22.51 – 30.0

4

2.4%

6.5%

7.3%

> 30

5

6.9%

15.8%

17.4%

from page 1574

 

Performance:

• In an external validation with patients from the TIMI 9 trials, the index showed high discriminatory capacity (c statistic 0.79) and concordance between observed 30 day mortality and predicted rates (goodness of fit, p = 0.7).

 


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