The Model of Claus et al for Predicting Cumulative Probability of Breast Cancer: First Degree Relatives with Breast Cancer

Description

Claus et al calculated the cumulative risk for a woman developing breast cancer by a certain age if she has a family history of breast cancer. The following tables apply if the patient has 1 or 2 first degree relatives with breast cancer; the following section provides data for when the mother and an aunt are affected. The study is based on the data from the Cancer and Steroid Hormone Study conducted by the Centers for Disease Control.

	Age of Onset in First Degree Relative
Patient	20-29	30-39	40-49	50-59	60-69	70-79
29	0.007	0.005	0.003	0.002	0.002	0.001
39	0.025	0.017	0.012	0.008	0.006	0.005
49	0.062	0.044	0.032	0.023	0.018	0.015
59	0.116	0.086	0.064	0.049	0.040	0.035
69	0.171	0.130	0.101	0.082	0.070	0.062
79	0.211	0.165	0.132	0.110	0.096	0.088

2 First Degree Relatives (Table 4, page 646)

Age of Relative with Earlier Age at Diagnosis: 20-29

	Age of Onset in Other First Degree Relative
Patient	20-29	30-39	40-49	50-59	60-69	70-79
29	0.021	0.020	0.018	0.016	0.014	0.012
39	0.069	0.066	0.061	0.055	0.048	0.041
49	0.166	0.157	0.146	0.133	0.117	0.099
59	0.295	0.279	0.261	0.238	0.210	0.179
69	0.412	0.391	0.366	0.335	0.297	0.256
79	0.484	0.460	0.434	0.397	0.354	0.308

Age of Relative with Earlier Age at Diagnosis: 30-39

	Age of Onset in Other First Degree Relative
Patient	30-39	40-49	50-59	60-69	70-79
29	0.018	0.016	0.014	0.012	0.009
39	0.062	0.056	0.048	0.040	0.032
49	0.148	0.134	0.116	0.096	0.077
59	0.265	0.239	0.209	0.175	0.143
69	0.371	0.337	0.296	0.251	0.207
79	0.437	0.399	0.353	0.302	0.252

Age of Relative with Earlier Age at Diagnosis: 40-49

	Age of Onset in Other First Degree Relative
Patient	40-49	50-59	60-69	70-79
29	0.014	0.012	0.009	0.007
39	0.048	0.039	0.030	0.023
49	0.117	0.096	0.075	0.058
59	0.210	0.174	0.139	0.108
69	0.298	0.249	0.202	0.161
79	0.354	0.300	0.246	0.200

Age of Relative with Earlier Age at Diagnosis: 50-59

	Age of Onset in Other First Degree Relative
Patient	50-59	60-69	70-79
29	0.009	0.006	0.005
39	0.030	0.022	0.016
49	0.075	0.056	0.042
59	0.138	0.105	0.081
69	0.200	0.157	0.124
79	0.245	0.195	0.158

Age of Relative with Earlier Age at Diagnosis: 60-69

	Age of Onset in Other First Degree Relative
Patient	60-69	70-79
29	0.004	0.003
39	0.016	0.012
49	0.041	0.030
59	0.080	0.061
69	0.122	0.098
79	0.156	0.128

Age of Relative with Earlier Age at Diagnosis: 70-79

	Age of Onset in Other First Degree Relative
Patient	70-79
29	0.002
39	0.008
49	0.023
59	0.049
69	0.081
79	0.109

Risk For Woman Based on Current Age

If a woman is a certain age and is cancer free, then the risk for developing cancer by a later age is (page 646):

probability of developing cancer by a later age =

= ((cumulative probability of cancer at later age) - (cumulative probability of cancer at current age)) / (1 - (cumulative probability of cancer at current age))

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The Model of Claus et al for Predicting Cumulative Probability of Breast Cancer: First Degree Relatives with Breast Cancer

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