Lopez-Herce et al derived an equation for predicting the risk of acute gastrointestinal bleeding in children based on log-rank analysis. This can help identify children in the intensive care unit who may benefit from prophylactic therapy for reduce the risk of gastrointestinal bleeding. The authors are from the La Paz Children's Hospital in Madrid, Spain.
Parameters:
(1) steroid administration
(2) acute renal failure
(3) cardiac failure
(4) metabolic acidosis
(5) liver alterations
(6) sepsis
Parameter
Finding
Points
steroid administration
absent
0
present
1
acute renal failure
absent
0
present
1
cardiac failure
absent
0
present
1
metabolic acidosis
absent
0
present
1
liver alterations
absent
0
present
1
sepsis
absent
0
present
1
F =
= (2.8 * (points for steroid administration)) + (2.6 * (points for acute renal failure)) + (2.1 * (points for cardiac failure)) + (1.8 * (points for metabolic acidosis)) + (1.3 * (points for liver alteration)) + (1.2 * (points for sepsis)) – 7.7
where:
• The criteria for the conditions are not explicitly stated but probably match the criteria given for the modified Zinner index for children (see above).
• Only 1 of the coefficients in the equation for F match the values for rounding the coefficients in Table 4, page 1086.
probability of acute GI hemorrhage =
= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * F))
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