Haroon et al reported the TargetCOPD score for predicting the risk of undiagnosed COPD. This can help to identify a patient for further evaluation. The authors are from the University of Birmingham, Keele University and Warwick Medical School in the United Kingdom.
Patient selection: age 40 to 79 years
Parameters:
(1) age in years
(2) smoking status
(3) dyspnea within the past 3 years
(4) number of salbutamol prescriptions in the past 3 years
(5) number of antibiotic prescriptions in the past 3 years
Parameter
Finding
Points
age in years
((years)^3)*(0.000143 - (0.0000318 * LN(age)))
smoking status
never smoked
0
former smoker
0.51
current smoker
1.6
dyspnea
no
0
yes
0.72
salbutamol prescriptions
0
0
>= 1
0.99 + (0.045 * (number))
antibiotic prescriptions
0
0
>= 1
0.47
value of X =
= SUM(points for all of the parameters) - 6.16
probability of undiagnosed COPD =
= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * X))
Performance:
• The area under the ROC curve is 0.74.
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