Singh et al reported Surgical Risk Preoperative Assessment System (SURPAS) for predicting discharge destination following surgery. The authors are from the University of Colorado in Denver.
Patient selection: surgical patient
Parameters:
(1) CPT event rate
(2) age in years
(3) inpatient vs outpatient surgery
(4) ASA status
(5) primary surgeon specialty vs general surgery
(6) functional health status before operation
(7) emergency operation
(8) work relative value unit (RVU; number usually between 5 and 30)
|
Parameter |
Finiding |
Odds Ratio |
LN(OR) |
|
CPT event rate |
|
1.041 |
0.04018 * (rate) |
|
age |
|
1.050 |
0.04879 * (years) |
|
status |
outpatient |
1 |
0 |
|
|
inpatient |
7.386 |
1.9995 |
|
ASA |
ASA 1 |
1 |
0 |
|
|
ASA 2 |
1.585 |
1.585 |
|
|
ASA 3 |
3.262 |
3.262 |
|
|
ASA 4 or 5 |
6.671 |
6.671 |
|
surgical specialty |
general |
1 |
0 |
|
|
gynecology |
0.587 |
-0.5327 |
|
|
neurosurgery |
2.209 |
0.7925 |
|
|
orthopedic |
2.085 |
0.73477 |
|
|
otolaryngology |
0.850 |
-0.1625 |
|
|
plastic |
1.534 |
0.4278 |
|
|
thoracic |
0.838 |
-0.1767 |
|
|
urologic |
0.598 |
-0.5146 |
|
|
vascular |
0.903 |
-0.102 |
|
functional status |
independent |
1 |
0 |
|
|
partially dependent |
2.814 |
1.0346 |
|
|
fully dependent |
2.471 |
0.9046 |
|
emergency |
no |
0 |
1 |
|
|
yes |
1.56 |
0.44468 |
|
work RVU |
|
1.004 |
0.00399 * (RVU) |
value of X =
= SUM(beta-coefficients) - 4.7992
probability of discharge to place other than home =
= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * X
Performance:
• The area under the ROC curve is 0.914.
Specialty: Anesthesiology, Surgery, general
