Protopapa et al developed the Surgical Outcome Risk Tool (SORT) to determine the risk of a surgical procedure. The authors are from the National Confidential Enquiry into Patient Outcome and Death (NCEPOD) and the University College London.
Patient selection: adult undergoing non-cardiac surgery
Outcome: 30-day mortality
Parameters:
(1) age in years
(2) ASA status
(3) timing of the operation
(4) risk of the surgical specialty
(5) type of surgery
(6) malignancy
Parameter
Finding
Points
age in years
< 65 years
0
65 to 79 years
0.777
>= 80 years
1.591
ASA status
1 or 2
0
3
1.411
4
2.388
5
4.081
timing of the operation
elective
0
expedited
1.236
urgent
1.657
immediate
2.452
risk of the specialty
not high risk
0
high risk (thoracic, vascular, GI)
0.712
type of surgery
no major or complex
0
major or complex
0.381
malignancy
absent
0
present
0.667
X =
= SUM(points for all 6 parameters) - 7.366
probability of 30-day mortality =
= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * X))
Performance:
• The area under the ROC curve was 0.91.
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