Lupon et al reported the ST2-SCD score for predicting sudden cardiac death (SCD) in an outpatient with heart failure. This can identify a patient who may benefit from more aggressive management. The authors are from multiple institutions in Spain.
Patient selection: outpatient with heart failure
Outcome: sudden death within 5 years
Parameters:
(1) duration of heart failure
(2) left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) in percent
(3) eGFR
(4) serum ST2 (interleukin-1 receptor-like 1) concentration in ng/mL
(5) age in years
(6) sex
Parameter
Finding
Points
duration of heart failure
<= 3 years
0
> 3 years
1
LVEF
>= 45%
0
< 45%
1
eGFR
>= 55 mL per min per 1.73 sq m
0
< 55 mL per min per 1.73 sq m
1
serum ST2
<= 45 ng/mL
0
> 45 ng/mL
1
age in years
< 60 years of age
0
>= 60 years of age
1
sex
female
0
male
1
total score =
= SUM(points for all 6 parameters)
Interpretation:
• minimum score: 0
• maximum score: 6
• The higher the score the greater the risk of sudden death.
Score
Percent SCD in 5 Years
0
0
1
0
2
1.2%
3
1.2%
4
4.5%
5
12.9%
6
26.7%
Performance:
• The area under the ROC curve was 0.82 for the derivation group and 0.87 for the validation cohort.
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