Probability of Cancer in Pulmonary Nodule: Model for Spiculated Mass

Description

McWilliams et al developed models for predicting cancer in a pulmonary nodule seen on a first screening CT. Two models are for a spiculated mass, one parsimonious and one a full model. The authors are from multiple institutions in Canada, the United States and Argentina.

Data modifications:

(1) age: 62 is subtracted from the actual age

(2) nodule size: 4 mm is subtracted and then transformed (below)

(3) number of nodules: 4 is subtracted

nodule size transformation =

= (((nodule size after modified) / 10)^(-0.5)) - 1.58113883

Parameters for parsimonious model:

(1) sex

(2) nodule size

(3) nodule location

(4) age

(5) family history of lung cancer

(6) emphysema

(7) nodule type

(8) number of nodules

(9) spiculation

Parameter	Findings	Points
sex	male	0
	female	0.6011
nodule size		-5.3854 * (size)
nodule location	upper	0.6581
	middle or lower lobe	0
age		0.0287 * (age)
family history	no	0
	yes	0.2961
emphysema	no	0
	yes	0.2953
nodule type	solid	0
	part solid	0.3770
	nonsolid	-0.1276
	wtih ground glass opacity	-0.1276
number nodules		-0.0824*(number)
spiculation	no	0
	yes	0.7729

value of X =

= SUM(points for the parameters)-6.7892

probability of cancer =

= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * X))

To read more or access our algorithms and calculators, please log in or register.

Description

Specialty

Objective

ICD-10

Probability of Cancer in Pulmonary Nodule Model for Spiculated Mass

Purpose: To use the full model of McWilliams et al to predict cancer in a spiculated mass seen on a first screening CT.

Description

Specialty

Objective

ICD-10