Yap et al reported a score for evaluating a Southeast Asian adult with heart failure. The authors are from the National Heart Centre Singapore, Duke-NUS Medical School, Singapore General Hospital, and Kwok Cardiology Clinic in Singapore.
Patient selection: Southeast Asian adult with heart failure
Parameters:
(1) history of prior myocardial infarction
(2) age of the patient in years
(3) atrial fibrillation
(4) stroke
(5) systolic blood pressure (SBP) in mm Hg
(6) QRS duration in milliseconds
(7) blood sodium in mmol/L
(8) serum creatinine in µmol/L
(9) peripheral vascular disease
(10) left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF)
|
Parameters
|
Findings
|
Points
|
|
history of AMI
|
no
|
0
|
|
|
yes
|
0.437
|
|
age in years
|
|
0.023 * (years)
|
|
atrial fibrillation
|
no
|
0
|
|
|
yes
|
0.221
|
|
stroke
|
no
|
0
|
|
|
yes
|
0.245
|
|
systolic blood pressure
|
|
-0.009 * (SBP)
|
|
QRS
|
|
0.004 * (duration)
|
|
serum sodium
|
|
-0.007 * (sodium)
|
|
serum creatinine
|
|
0.003 * (creatinine)
|
|
peripheral vascular disease
|
no
|
0
|
|
|
yes
|
0.456
|
|
LVEF
|
>= 50%
|
0
|
|
|
30 to 40%
|
0.118
|
|
|
< 30%
|
0.301
|
score =
= SUM(points for all of the parameters)
survival function =
= (expected survival at time t) ^ EXP(score)
where:
• t is a time > 0 and <= 2 years
Performance:
• The area under the ROC curve is 0.73 in the derivation and 0.65 in the validation cohorts for 2-year mortality.
