Atttia et al reported equations for estimating length of stay (LOS) and mortality following burn injury. This can help to identify a patient who may benefit from more aggressive management. The authors are from Egyptian Naval Forces and the University of Alexandria.
Patient selection: significant thermal burn in Egypt
Parameters:
(1) percent of total body surface area (TBSA), from 1 to 100
(2) depth of burn
(3) degree of burn
(4) sex
(5) smoke inhalation
(6) clothing ignition
(7) age in years
|
Parameter
|
Finding
|
Points
|
|
depth
|
superficial
|
0
|
|
|
depth
|
1
|
|
degree of burn
|
first
|
1
|
|
|
second
|
2
|
|
|
mixed second and third
|
2.5
|
|
|
third
|
3
|
|
sex
|
male
|
0
|
|
|
female
|
1
|
|
smoke inhalation
|
none
|
0
|
|
|
present
|
1
|
|
clothing ignition
|
no
|
0
|
|
|
yes
|
1
|
where:
• Points are provided for both depth and degree of burn.
• Scoring for degree of burn was not specified.
length of hospital stay in days =
= (0.365 * (percent TBSA)) + (6.89 * (points for smoke inhalation)) +(7.74 * (points for depth)) + (1.95 * (points for degree of burn)) + (4.31 * (points for sex)) + (5.27 * (points for clothing ignition) - 17.81
X =
= (2.8 * (points for TBSA)) - (2.54 * (points for inhalation)) + (2.69 * (points for depth)) - (1.34 * (points for degree)) - (1.98 * (age)) - 9.089
probability of mortality =
= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * X))
Limitations:
• The probability of mortality score was not implemented because values obtained were inappropriate.
• The equation on page 1059 should have a (-1) in the exponential.
• The handling of age and TBSA may need to be modified. The score appears to take the raw values but coded values (unspecified in the paper) may be needed.
