Description

Woo et al developed scores for predicting the risk of recurrent falls in Chinese adults who live in the community. A patient who is at increased risk may benefit from more aggressive management. The authors are from the Chineses University of Hong Kong and Fudan University of China.


Patient selection: Chinese male >= 65 years of age

 

Outcome: recurrent falls

 

Parameters:

(1) number of falls in the past 12 months

(2) age of the patient in years

(3) number of grams of whole milk per week

(4) number of times feeling full of energy in the past 4 weeks

(5) difficulty doing heavy housework

(6) diabetes

(7) cataracts

 

Parameter

Finding

Points

number of falls

0

0

 

1

3

 

>= 2

12

age

< 70 years

0

 

>= 70 years

3

whole milk in g/week

<= 52 g/week

0

 

> 52 g/week

3

feeling full of energy

all or most of the time

0

 

a good bit of the time

2

 

some of the time

4

 

a little or none of the time

5

difficulty doing housework

none

0

 

some difficulty

2

 

much difficulty

4

 

unable

5

diabetes

no

0

 

yes

3

cataracts

no

0

 

yes

2

 

total score =

= SUM(points for all 7 parameters)

 

Interpretation:

• minimum score: 0

• maximum score: 33

 

Performance:

• The area under the ROC curve is 0.70.

• A score >= 8 has a sensitivity of 56% and specificity of 78%. The negative predictive value is 95%.


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