Description

Woo et al developed scores for predicting the risk of recurrent falls in Chinese adults who live in the community. A patient who is at increased risk may benefit from more aggressive management. The authors are from the Chineses University of Hong Kong and Fudan University of China.


Patient selection: Chinese female >= 65 years of age

 

Outcome: recurrent falls

 

Parameters:

(1) limited in the kind of work or other activities during the past 4 weeks

(2) feeling downheartd during the past 4 weeks

(3) number of falls in the past 12 months

(4) average stride length in meters

(5) number of time acetaminophen taken during the week

(6) cataracts

(7) grams of milk and milk products per week

(8) clumsiness in walking in past 12 months

(9) afraid that something bad is going to happen

 

Parameter

Finding

Points

limited in activities

no

0

 

yes

2

feeling downhearted

none of the time

0

 

a little of the time

1

 

some of the time

3

 

most of the time

4

number of falls

0

0

 

1

4

 

>= 2

6

stride length

< 0.5 meters

0

 

0.5 to 0.59 meters

2

 

>= 0.6 meters

4

acetaminophen

0 to 2 times per week

0

 

>= 3 times per week

6

cataracts

no

0

 

yes

2

dairy

<= 276 g per week

0

 

> 276 g per week

3

clumsiness

no

0

 

yes

2

afraid

no

0

 

yes

2

 

total score =

= SUM(points for all 9 parameters)

 

Interpretation:

• minimum score: 0

• maximum score: 31

 

Performance:

• The area under the ROC curve was 0.73.

• A score >= 8 has a sensitivity of 56% and specificity of 78%. The negative predictive value is 95%.


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