Patient selection: uncomplicated falciparum malaria, age >= 14 years
Outcome: severe malaria
Parameters:
(1) schizontemia
(2) gametocytemia
(3) dehydration
(4) obesity (BMI > 24.9 kg per square meter)
(5) initial pulse in beats per minute
(6) duration of fever prior to admission in days
(7) history of malaria in the last year
(8) initial serum albumin in g/dL
|
Parameter
|
Finding
|
Points
|
|
schizontemia
|
absent
|
0
|
|
|
present
|
4.38
|
|
gametocytemia
|
absent
|
0
|
|
|
present
|
1.62
|
|
dehydration
|
absent
|
0
|
|
|
present
|
1.17
|
|
obesity
|
absent
|
0
|
|
|
present
|
0.14
|
|
initial pulse rate
|
|
0.05 * (pulse)
|
|
duration of fever
|
|
0.04 * (duration)
|
|
history of malaria
|
no
|
0
|
|
|
yes
|
-0.50
|
|
serum albumin
|
|
-0.48*(albumin)
|
total score =
= SUM(points for all 8 parameters) - 5.66
Interpretation:
• Scores in the study ranged from -2.0 to 7.0.
• A score > 1.1 indicates the group at risk for severe malaria.
• Looking at Figure 1, a score < 1 indicates uncomplicated malaria; a score > 1.40 mostly severe; 1 to 1.40 a mix.
Performance:
• The area under the ROC curve is 0.97.
• A score > 1.1 had a sensitivity of 92% and specificity of 91%.
