Saylam et al developed a simple score for predicting a cystobiliary fistula in a patient with hepatic hydatid cysts. The authors are from Ankara Numune Training and Research Hospital in Turkey.
Patient selection: hepatic hydatid cysts requiring a surgical operation
Outcome: cystobiliary fistula
Parameters:
(1) white blood cell count per µL
(2) serum direct bilirubin in mg/dL
(3) cyst diameter in cm
(4) serum alkaline phosphatase concentration in U/L
Parameter
Finding
Points
WBC count
<= 9,000 per µL
0
> 9,000 per µL (OR 4.5)
1
serum direct bilirubin
<= 0.7 mg/dL
0
> 0.7 mg/dL (OR 2.8)
1
cyst diameter
<= 8.2 cm
0
> 8.2 cm (OR 5.5)
1
serum alkaline phosphatase
<= 120 U/L
0
> 120 U/L (OR 3.8)
1
total score =
= SUM(points for all 4 parameters)
Interpretation:
• minimum score: 0
• maximum score: 4
Performance:
• The area under the ROC curve was 0.80.
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