Ryu et al reported a model for predicting mortality in a patient with multivessel coronary artery disease (MVD) following ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI). The authors are from Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Chungbuk National University and Chonnam National University.
Patient selection: multivessel coronary artery disease and STEMI
Outcome: all-cause 1-year mortality
Parameters:
(1) age in years
(2) body weight in kilograms
(3) Killip class from I to IV
(4) serum creatinine in mg/dL
(5) left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) in percent
(6) cerebrovascular disease
Parameter
Finding
Points
age in years
< 55 years
1
55 to 64.99 years
17
65 to 72.99 years
34
>= 73 years
51
weight
>= 71 kg
1
64 to 70.9 kg
13
56 to 63.9 kg
26
< 56 kg
39
Killip class
I
1
II
15
III
30
IV
45
serum creatinine
< 0.9 mg/dL
1
0.9 to 0.99 mg/dL
15
1.0 to 1.19 mg/dL
30
>= 1.2 mg/dL
45
LVEF
>= 58%
1
50 to 57.9%
13
43 to 49.9%
26
< 43%
39
cerebrovascular disease
no
0
yes
22
total score =
= SUM(points for all of the parameters)
Interpretation:
• minimum score: 4
• maximum score: 241
• The higher the score the greater the risk of mortality.
probability of mortality =
= 1 / X
X =
= 4.69169 * (0.9784401507^(score))
Score
1-Year Mortality
< 110
1.1%
110 to 140
3.1%
140 to 170
7.1%
170 to 200
14.5%
>= 200
33.3%
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