Description

Roberts et al developed a score for predicting a pancreatic fistula after a pancreaticoduodenectomy. This can help to identify a patient who may benefit from more aggressive management. The authors are from University Hospitals Birmingham.


Patient selection: pancreaticoduodenectomy

 

Outcome: pancreatic fistula

 

Parameters:

(1) body mass index (BMI)

(2) pancreatic duct width in mm in contrast-enhanced CT

 

X =

= (0.107 * (BMI)) - (0.404 * (pancreatic duct width)) - 3.206

 

percentage of patients with pancreatic fistula =

= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * X))

 

The risk increases with increasing BMI and decreases with the diameter of the pancreatic duct.

 

Additional factors from postoperative analysis:

(1) perirenal fat thickness

(2) diagnosis (duodenal lesion, dysplastic ampulla, parenchymal pancreatic disease other than pancreatic or ampullary cancer)


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