Nelson and Boyko reported a score for predicting impaired glucose tolerance in an adult based on data from the NHANES III survey. The authors are from VA Puget Sound Health Care System and the University of Washington Seattle.
Patient selection: 40 to 74 years of age with fasting glucose <= 125 mg/dL
Parameters:
(1) fasting glucose in mg/dL
(2) age in years
(3) serum triglyceride concentration in mg/dL
(4) body mass index (BMI) in kg per square meter
(5) ethnicity
(6) hypertension
Parameter
Finding
Points
fasting glucose
< 100 mg/dL
0
100 to 110 mg/dL
1
110.01 to 125 mg/dL
3
age in years
< 60 years
0
>= 60 years
2
triglyceride and BMI
TG < 150 mg/dL AND BMI < 30 kg per sq m
0
else
1
ethnicity
Mexican-American
1
other
0
hypertension
no
0
yes
1
total score =
= SUM(points for all of the parameters)
Interpretation:
• minimum score: 0
• maximum score: 8
• A score >= 3 has the highest Youden index (sensitivity 71%, specificity 65%).
Total Score
Risk of Diabetes
Oral GTT
0 or 1
low
no
2 to 5
intermediate
possibly
6 to 8
high
yes
Performance:
• The area under the ROC curve is 0.74.
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