Description

Marwick et al developed a score for predicting the risk of a major cardiovascular event based on findings of a dobutamine stress echocardiogram. This can help identify high risk patients who may benefit from more aggressive monitoring and management. The authors are from the University of Queensland, the Thoraxcenter in Rotterdam, Indiana University, and the Cleveland Clinic.


Major cardiovascular events: myocardial infarction or cardiac death

 

Parameters:

(1) age

(2) history of heart failure

(3) peak rate•pressure product during dobutamine stress testing

(4) evidence of ischemia during stress testing (new or worsening wall motion abnormalities)

(5) scar (presence of resting akinesia or severe hypokinesia)

 

peak rate•pressure product =

= (maximum heart rate in beats per minute) * (maximum systolic blood pressure in mm Hg)

 


Parameter

Finding

Points

age in years

 

history of heart failure

absent

0

 

present

1

rate•pressure product

>= 15,000

0

 

< 15,000

1

ischemia

absent

0

 

present

1

scare

absent

0

 

present

1

 

risk score =

= (0.02 * (age in years)) + (0.4 * (points for heart failure)) + (0.4 * (points for rate•product)) + (0.6 * (points for scar)) + (0.6 * (points for ischemia))

 

Interpretation:

• minimum score: around 0.4

• maximum score: around 6

 

Risk Score

Risk Group

5 Year Event Free Survival

< 1.2

low risk

> 97%

1.2 - 2.6

intermediate risk

75 - 97%

> 2.6

high risk

< 75%

 


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