Score of Marshall et al for Predicting the Mortality Risk for a Very Low Birth Weight Infant in the NEOCOSUR South American Network

 

Patient selection: very low birth weight infant in the NICU weighing 500 to 1,500 g

 

Model: stepwise logistic regression

 

Parameters:

(1) birthweight in grams

(2) gestational age in weeks

(3) 1-minute Apgar score

(4) congenital malformation

(5) prenatal corticosteroid therapy

(6) gender

Parameter	Finding	Points
congenital malformation	no	0
	yes	3.419
prenatal corticosteroid therapy	no	0
	yes	-0.302
gender	male	0
	female	-0.474

 

where:

• The 3 key drivers for mortality were birth weight, gestational age and 1-minute Apgar score.

 

X =

= (-0.331 * (birthweight in grams) / 100) - (0.132 * (gestational age in weeks)) - (0.265 * (1 minute Apgar)) + SUM(points for 3 parameters) + 8.378

 

mortality rate =

= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * X)