Fuchs et al developed a simple score for predicting the chances of an early preterm birth in a woman with a singleton pregnancy. This can help the physician and woman to decide about the need for emergency cerclage. The authors are from multiple hospitals in France.
Patient selection: woman with a singleton pregnancy
Parameters:
(1) obstetric history
(2) cervical dilation in cm
(3) status of membranes
(4) evidence of infection (WBC count >= 13,600 per µL or CRP > 15 mg/L)
Parameter |
Finding |
Points |
obstetric history |
primigravida |
4 |
|
multigravida, no history of second trimester pregnancy loss |
0 |
|
multigravida, history of second trimester pregnancy loss |
5 |
cervical dilatation in cm |
1 cm |
0 |
|
2 cm |
1 |
|
3 cm |
2 |
|
>= 4 cm |
4 |
membranes |
visible at external os |
0 |
|
bulging through os into vagina |
4 |
evidence of infection |
none |
0 |
|
present |
2 |
total score =
= SUM(points for all 4 parameters)
Interpretation:
• minimum score: 0
• maximum score: 15
• The higher the score the greater the chances of early preterm birth.
probability of early preterm birth =
= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * ((0.382 * (score)) – 2.363)))
Specialty: Obstetrics & Gynecology