Camilleri developed a model for the prediction of acute "poisoning" in a patient with altered mental status but no history of alcohol or drug ingestion. The author is from the University of Malta.
Patient selection: altered mental status, no definite history of alcohol or drug use
Positive outcome: alcohol intoxication, medication adverse effect or drug overdose
Parameters:
(1) age in years
(2) smells of alcohol
(3) aggressive
(4) altered mental status
Parameter
Finding
Points
age of the patient
< 50 years
2
>= 50 years
0
smells of alcohol
no
0
yes
4
aggressive
no
0
yes
2
altered mental status
confused
-1
unresponsive (U of AVPU)
1
other (rousable, VP of AVPU)
0
total score =
= SUM(points for all 4 parameters)
Interpretation:
• minimum score: -1
• maximum score: 9
• The higher the score the more likely the outcome.
Score
Percent Outcome
-1
2%
0
6%
1
15%
2
24%
3
37%
4
53%
5
72%
6
91%
7
100%
from Figure 2
Performance:
• The area under the ROC curve was 0.83.
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