Arima et al reported a model for predicting risk of cardiovascular disease in a Japanese adult. This can help to identify a patient who may benefit from more aggressive management. The authors are from Kyushu University in Fukuoka, Japan.
Patient selection: Japanese adult >= 40 years of age
Parameters:
(1) age in years
(2) gender
(3) systolic blood pressure in mm Hg
(4) LDL cholesterol in mg/dL
(5) HDL cholesterol in mg/dl
(6) diabetes
(7) smoking
|
Parameter |
Finding |
Points |
|---|---|---|
|
age in years |
40 to 44 |
0 |
|
|
45 to 49 |
1 |
|
|
50 to 54 |
2 |
|
|
55 to 59 |
3 |
|
|
60 to 64 |
4 |
|
|
68 to 69 |
5 |
|
|
70 to 74 |
6 |
|
|
75 to 79 |
7 |
|
|
>= 80 |
8 |
|
gender |
female |
0 |
|
|
male |
2 |
|
systolic blood pressure |
<= 119 mg Hg |
0 |
|
|
120 to 139 mm Hg |
1 |
|
|
140 to 159 mm Hg |
2 |
|
|
160 to 179 mm Hg |
3 |
|
|
>= 180 mm Hg |
4 |
|
LDL cholesterol |
< 140 mg/dL |
0 |
|
|
>= 140 mg/dL |
1 |
|
HDL cholesterol |
< 40 mg/dL |
1 |
|
|
>= 40 mg/dL |
0 |
|
diabetes |
no |
0 |
|
|
present |
1 |
|
smoker |
no |
0 |
|
|
yes |
1 |
total score =
= SUM(points for all 7 parameters)
Interpretation:
• minimum score: 0
• maximum score: 19
• The higher the score the greater the risk of cardiovascular disease.
|
Score |
Risk of Cardiovascular Disease at 10 Years |
|---|---|
|
0 |
1.4% |
|
1 |
1.8% |
|
2 |
2.4% |
|
3 |
3.2% |
|
4 |
4.2% |
|
5 |
5.6% |
|
6 |
7.4% |
|
7 |
9.8% |
|
8 |
12.8% |
|
9 |
16.7% |
|
10 |
21.7% |
|
11 |
27.8% |
|
12 to 19 |
>= 30% |
|
Score |
Vascular Age for a Female |
Vascular Age for a Male |
|---|---|---|
|
0 |
40 to 44 |
NA |
|
1 |
45 to 49 |
NA |
|
2 |
50 to 54 |
40 to 44 |
|
3 |
55 to 59 |
45 to 49 |
|
4 |
60 to 64 |
50 to 54 |
|
5 |
65 to 69 |
55 to 59 |
|
6 |
70 to 74 |
60 to 64 |
|
7 |
75 to 79 |
65 to 69 |
|
8 |
80 to 84 |
70 to 74 |
|
9 |
85 to 89 |
75 to 79 |
|
10 |
90 to 94 |
80 to 84 |
|
11 |
95 to 99 |
85 to 89 |
|
12 to 19 |
>= 100 |
>= 90 |
Specialty: Cardiology
ICD-10: ,
