Description

Morisset et al developed a score for predicting mortality for a patient with scleroderma-related interstitial lung disease (ILD). This can help to identify a patient who may benefit from more aggressive management. The authors are from the University of California San Francisco, Mayo Clinic, and the University of Colorado.


Patient selection: scleroderma-related interstitial lung disease (Scl-ILD)

 

Outcome: 3-year all-cause mortality

 

Parameters:

(1) ever smoked (S)

(2) age in years (A)

(3) DLco as percent of predicted (DL)

 

Parameter

Finding

Points

ever smoked

no

0

 

yes

1

age in years

< 55 years

0

 

55 to 70 years

1

 

> 70 years

2

DLco

> 60% of predicted

0

 

40 to 60%

3

 

< 40% of predicted

4

 

total score =

= SUM(points for all 3 parameters)

 

Interpretation:

• minimum score: 0

• maximum score: 7

• The higher the score the greater the risk.

 

Total Score

Risk Category

0 to 3

low

4 or 5

moderate

6 or 7

high

 

Performance:

• The area under the ROC curve was 0.82.


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