Manuel et al reported the RSVpredict model for predicting RSV infection in pediatric patients. This can help to guide testing and therapy. The authors are from University Hospital Heidelberg.
Patient selection: age < 18 years with acute respiratory tract infection
Parameters:
(1) age in years
(2) cough
(3) rales on exam
(4) admission for lower respiratory tract infection (LRTI)
(5) duration of clinical symptoms at admission
(6) month admitted (RSV season in Germany)
Parameter
Finding
Points
age in years
-0.26 * (age)
cough
absent
0
present
0.89
rales
absent
0
present
0.51
LRTI
no
0
yes
1.04
duration
< 2 days
-1.01
>= 2 days
0
month
November
0
December
1.34
January
1.66
February
1.42
March
0.52
April
0.31
X =
= SUM(points for all 6 parameters) - 2.76
probability of RSV =
= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) *X))
Performance:
• The area under the ROC curve was 0.79 in the training cohort and 0.73 in the validation cohort.
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