Suh et al reported 2 risk scores for a patient with papillary thyroid carcinoma. This can help to identify a patient who may benefit from more aggressive management. The authors are from Dong-A University, Pusan National University and Chung-Ang University in South Korea.
Patient selection: papillary thyroid carcinoma
Parameters:
(1) sex
(2) tumor size in cm
(3) microscopic extrathyroidal extension
(4) BRAF mutation
(5) TERT mutation
(6) histologic type
(7) lymph node metastases
(8) distant metastases
Parameter
Finding
Points
sex
female
1
male
1.53
tumor size
<= 2 cm
1
> 2 cm
2.69
extrathyroidal extension
no
1
yes
2.83
BRAF mutation
no
1
yes
3.34
TERT mutation
no
1
yes
5.73
histologic type
follicular
0.52
diffuse sclerosing
3.19
classic
1
other
1
lymph node metastasis
no
1
yes
3.24
distant metastases
no
1
yes
11.96
total score =
= SUM(points for all 8 parameters)
Interpretation:
• minimum score: 7.52
• maximum score: 34.51 (maximum seen in patients was 27.59
• A score < 13.93 is designated low risk with a 10-year survival of 93%.
• A score >= 13.93 is designated high risk with a 10-year survival of 66%.
Performance:
• The area under the ROC curve is 0.74.
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