Lin et al reported 2 scores for prediction of chronic pancreatitis in adults. The authors are from Changhua Christian Hospital in Taiwan.
Patient selection: adult with acute pancreatitis
Outcome: chronic pancreatitis
Parameters:
(1) smoking
(2) age at onset
(3) alcohol abuse
(4) number of episodes of recurrent acute pancreatitis (RAP)
Parameter
Finding
Score 1
Score 2
smoking
no
0
yes
1
age at onset
< 55 years
2
>= 55 years
alcohol misuse
3
episodes RAP
5
4
>= 4
7
total scores =
= SUM(points for all of the parameters)
Interpretation:
• minimum scores: 0
• maximum score 1: 11
• maximum score 2: 13
Risk Group
low
0 to 5
intermediate
6 or 7
high
8 to 11
8 to 13
Performance:
• Chronic pancreatitis within 5 years: area under ROC curve 0.83 for score 1 and 0.84 for score 2.
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Specialty: Gastroenterology
