Kahn et al reported 2 scores for predicting diabetes mellitus in an American adult. One is based on clinical findings and the second includes laboratory testing. The authors are from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
Patient selection: US adult from 45 to 64 years
Parameters:
(1) diabetes in mother
(2) diabetes in father
(3) hypertension
(4) race
(5) age in years
(6) alcohol intake
(7) waist circumference in cm
(8) sex
(9) height in cm
(10) resting pulse in beats per minute
(11) glucose concentration in mmol/L on fasting blood sample
(12) serum triglyceride level in mmol/L on fasting blood sample
(13) HDL cholesterol concentration in mmol/L on fasting blood sample
(14) uric acid concentration in µmol/L on fasting blood sample
|
Parameter |
Finding |
Points |
|
diabetes in mother |
no |
0 |
|
|
yes |
8 |
|
diabetes in father |
no |
0 |
|
|
yes |
6 |
|
hypertension |
no |
0 |
|
|
yes |
3 |
|
race |
black |
7 |
|
|
other |
0 |
|
age |
45 to 54 years |
0 |
|
|
55 to 64 years |
3 |
|
alcohol intake |
never or former |
2 |
|
|
current |
0 |
|
waist circumference |
male and < 90 cm |
0 |
|
|
male and 90 to 94.9 cm |
5 |
|
|
male and 95 to 99.9 cm |
11 |
|
|
male and 100 to 105.9 cm |
14 |
|
|
male and >= 106 cm |
21 |
|
|
female and < 81 cm |
0 |
|
|
female and 81 to 87.9 cm |
5 |
|
|
female and 88 to 95.9 cm |
11 |
|
|
female and 96 to 104.9 cm |
14 |
|
|
female and >= 105 cm |
21 |
|
height |
male and < 175 cm |
4 |
|
|
male and >= 175 cm |
0 |
|
|
female and <161 cm |
4 |
|
|
female and >= 161 cm |
0 |
|
resting pulse |
male and < 68 beats per minute |
0 |
|
|
male and >= 68 bpm |
2 |
|
|
female and < 70 bpm |
0 |
|
|
female and >= 70 bpm |
2 |
|
glucose |
< 5.29 mmol/L |
0 |
|
|
5.29 to 5.54 |
6 |
|
|
5.55 to 5.87 |
13 |
|
|
>= 5.88 |
28 |
|
triglyceride |
male and < 1.47 mmol/L |
0 |
|
|
male and 1.47 to 2.01 mmol/L |
4 |
|
|
male and >= 2.02 mmol/L |
7 |
|
|
female and < 1.26 mmol/L |
0 |
|
|
female and 1.26 to 1.69 mmol/L |
4 |
|
|
female and >= 1.70 mmol/L |
7 |
|
HDL cholesterol |
male and < 1.02 mmol/L |
5 |
|
|
male and >= 1.02 mmol/L |
0 |
|
|
female and< 1.37 mmol/L |
5 |
|
|
female and>= 1.37 mmol/L |
0 |
|
uric acid |
male and < 464 µmol/L |
0 |
|
|
male and >= 464 µmol/L |
3 |
|
|
female and < 381 µmol/L |
0 |
|
|
female and >= 381 µmol/L |
3 |
total score =
= SUM(points for all of the parameters)
Interpretation:
• minimum score: 0
• maximum score: 99
• A score >= 38 had a sensitivity of 0.74 and specificity of 0.71.
|
Score |
Quintile |
10-Year Risk Diabetes |
|
0 to 16 |
1 |
4% |
|
17 to 26 |
2 |
6% |
|
27 to 36 |
3 |
12% |
|
37 to 49 |
4 |
19% |
|
>= 50 |
5 |
46% |
Performance:
• The area under the ROC curve is 0.79.
Specialty: Endocrinology
