Grasa et al reported risk scores based on the KAWA-RACE cohort. One risk score predicts the risk of coronary artery aneurysms. The authors are from multiple institutions in Spain.
Patient selection: Kawasaki disease
Parameters:
(1) gender
(2) age at admission
(3) days of fever
(4) lymphadenopathy
(5) serum creatinine in mg/dL
(6) serum C-reactive protein (CRP) in mg/dL
(7) hemoglobin in g/dL
(8) serum sodium in mmol/L
Parameters |
Finding |
Points |
gender |
female |
0 |
|
male |
1.7 |
age at admission |
< 4 months |
2.9 |
|
>= 4 months |
0 |
days of fever |
< 10 days |
0 |
|
>= 10 days |
2.8 |
lymphadenopathy |
no |
0 |
|
yes |
1 |
serum creatinine |
< 0.3 mg/dL |
0 |
|
>= 0.3 mg/dL |
3.5 |
serum CRP |
< 13.6 mg/dL |
0 |
|
>= 13.6 mg/dL |
1.1 |
hemoglobin |
< 10 g/dL |
1.3 |
|
>= 10 g/dL |
0 |
serum sodium |
< 130 mmol/L |
2.4 |
|
>= 130 mmol/L |
0 |
total score =
= SUM(points for all of the parameters)
Interpretation:
• minimum score: 0
• maximum score: 16.7
• A score >= 8 is associated with a high risk of coronary artery aneurysm.
A line approximating Figure 2:
probability of aneurysm =
= (0.003519 * ((score)^2)) - (0.03644 * (score)) + 0.121
Performance:
• The area under the ROC curve was 0.73 on the derivation but 0.60 on the external cohorts.
Specialty: Infectious Diseases