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Description

Grasa et al reported risk scores based on the KAWA-RACE cohort. One risk score predicts the risk of coronary artery aneurysms. The authors are from multiple institutions in Spain.


Patient selection: Kawasaki disease

 

Parameters:

(1) gender

(2) age at admission

(3) days of fever

(4) lymphadenopathy

(5) serum creatinine in mg/dL

(6) serum C-reactive protein (CRP) in mg/dL

(7) hemoglobin in g/dL

(8) serum sodium in mmol/L

 

Parameters

Finding

Points

gender

female

0

 

male

1.7

age at admission

< 4 months

2.9

 

>= 4 months

0

days of fever

< 10 days

0

 

>= 10 days

2.8

lymphadenopathy

no

0

 

yes

1

serum creatinine

< 0.3 mg/dL

0

 

>= 0.3 mg/dL

3.5

serum CRP

< 13.6 mg/dL

0

 

>= 13.6 mg/dL

1.1

hemoglobin

< 10 g/dL

1.3

 

>= 10 g/dL

0

serum sodium

< 130 mmol/L

2.4

 

>= 130 mmol/L

0

 

total score =

= SUM(points for all of the parameters)

 

Interpretation:

• minimum score: 0

• maximum score: 16.7

• A score >= 8 is associated with a high risk of coronary artery aneurysm.

 

A line approximating Figure 2:

 

probability of aneurysm =

= (0.003519 * ((score)^2)) - (0.03644 * (score)) + 0.121

 

Performance:

• The area under the ROC curve was 0.73 on the derivation but 0.60 on the external cohorts.


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