Zhang et al reported a model for predicting bloodstream infection in a febrile obstetric patient. This can help to identify a patient who may benefit from more aggressive management. The authors are from Chongqing Health Centre for Women and Children and Harbin Medical University in China.
Patient selection: febrile obstetric patient
Parameters:
(1) premature rupture of the membranes (PROM)
(2) percent neutrophils in the differential count of the peripheral blood, from 0 to 100
(3) serum CRP in mg/L
(4) Tmax in °C
Parameter
Finding
Points
PROM
no
0
yes
0.898
percent neutrophils
0.078 * (percent)
serum CRP
0.014 * (CRP)
Tmax
1.167 * (Tmax)
where:
• Tmax is the main driver for the model, with percent neutrophils second.
value of X =
= SUM(points for all of the parameters) - 53.887
probability of bloodstream infection =
= 1 / ( 1 + EXP((-1) * X))
Performance:
• The area under the ROC curve is 0.83.
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