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Description

Zhang et al reported a model for predicting bloodstream infection in a febrile obstetric patient. This can help to identify a patient who may benefit from more aggressive management. The authors are from Chongqing Health Centre for Women and Children and Harbin Medical University in China.


Patient selection: febrile obstetric patient

 

Parameters:

(1) premature rupture of the membranes (PROM)

(2) percent neutrophils in the differential count of the peripheral blood, from 0 to 100

(3) serum CRP in mg/L

(4) Tmax in °C

 

Parameter

Finding

Points

PROM

no

0

 

yes

0.898

percent neutrophils

 

0.078 * (percent)

serum CRP

 

0.014 * (CRP)

Tmax

 

1.167 * (Tmax)

 

where:

• Tmax is the main driver for the model, with percent neutrophils second.

 

value of X =

= SUM(points for all of the parameters) - 53.887

 

probability of bloodstream infection =

= 1 / ( 1 + EXP((-1) * X))

 

Performance:

• The area under the ROC curve is 0.83.

 


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