Zafrir et al reported a score for predicting mortality for a patient with congestive heart failure. The authors are from Lady Davis Carmel Medical Center, Technion-Israel Institute of Technology, Tel-Aviv University and Lin Medical Center in Israel.
Patient selection: adults with heart failure (mean age 67 +/- 13 years)
Outcome: 2-year mortality rate
Parameters:
(1) age in years
(2) sex
(3) systolic blood pressure in mm Hg
(4) beta-blocker therapy
(5) serum sodium in mmol/:
(6) serum uric acid in mg/dL
(7) QTc interval in milliseconds
(8) 6-minute walk distance in meters
Parameters
Findings
Points
age in years
< 70 years
0
>= 70 years
5
sex
male
6
female
0
systolic blood pressure
>= 110 mm Hg
0
< 110 mm Hg
4
beta blocker therapy
no
8
yes
0
serum sodium
>= 136 mmol/L
0
< 136 mmol/L
6
serum uric acid
<= 7.5 mg/dL
0
> 7.5 mg/dL
6
QTc interval
<= 450 milliseconds
0
> 450 milliseconds
5
6-minute walk distance
> 300 meters
0
<= 300 meters
15
total score =
= SUM(points for all 8 parameters)
Interpretation:
• minimum score: 0
• maximum score: 55
• The higher the score the worse the 2 year mortality.
Total Score
Risk
2-Year Mortality Rate
0 to 20
low
9%
21 to 29
moderate
22%
30 to 35
high risk
35%
36 to 55
very high risk
62%
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