Xie et al reported models for predicting progression of IgA nephropathy. This can help to identify a patient who may benefit from more aggressive management. The authors are from Shanghai Jiao Tong University and Columbia University.
Patient selection: IgA nephropathy
Outcome: progression to end-stage renal disease (ESRD)
Parameter
Increased Risk
HR for Outcome
eGFR
< 60
7.91
anemia
present
4.98
serum albumin
< 3 g/dL
2.45
systolic blood pressure
>= 140 mm Hg
2.85
Parameters:
(1) eGFR in mL per min per 1.73 sq m
(2) hemoglobin in g/dL
(3) serum albumin in g/dL
(4) systolic blood pressure in mm Hg
Paraemter
Points
eGFR
-0.039 * (eGFR)
hemoglobin
-0.23 * (hemoglobin)
serum albumin
- 0.762 * (albumin)
systolic blood pressure
0.016 * (SBP)
risk score =
= SUM(points for the above parameters) + 6.932
Score
Tertile
ESRD Events
< -0.89
1
0.5%
-0.89 to 0.99
2
8.7%
>= 1
3
23.2%
Performance:
• The area under the ROC curve at 24 months was 0.95.
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