Wang et al developed a score for predicting the risk of stroke within 5 years for a patient with new-onset atrial fibrillation. This can help identify those patients who may benefit from interventions. The authors are from the Framingham Heart Study and most are from Boston.
NOTES:
The concurrent point score for predicting risk of stroke or death is in 07.34.01.
Parameters:
(1) age
(2) gender
(3) systolic blood pressure (based on the mean of 2 physician measurements)
(4) diabetes mellitus (fasting glucose >= 140 mg/dL; a random glucose >= 200 mg/dL; use of insulin or a hypoglycemic agent)
(5) prior history of stroke or TIA (transient ischemic attack)
Parameter |
Finding |
Points |
---|---|---|
age in years |
55 - 59 years |
0 |
|
60 - 62 years |
1 |
|
63 - 66 years |
2 |
|
67 - 71 years |
3 |
|
72 - 74 years |
4 |
|
75 - 77 years |
5 |
|
78 - 81 years |
6 |
|
82 - 85 years |
7 |
|
86 - 90 years |
8 |
|
91 - 93 years |
9 |
|
>= 94 years |
10 |
gender |
male |
0 |
|
female |
6 |
systolic blood pressure |
< 120 mm Hg |
0 |
|
120 - 139 mm Hg |
1 |
|
140 - 159 mm Hg |
2 |
|
160 - 179 mm Hg |
3 |
|
>= 180 mm Hg |
4 |
diabetes mellitus |
no |
0 |
|
yes |
5 |
previous history of stroke or TIA |
no |
0 |
|
yes |
6 |
total score =
= SUM(points for all 5 parameters)
Interpretation:
• minimum score: 0
• maximum score: 31
• The higher the score the greater the risk of stroke within 5 years.
Total Score |
5 Year Risk of Stroke |
---|---|
0 or 1 |
5% |
2 or 3 |
6% |
4 |
7% |
5 |
8% |
6 or 7 |
9% |
8 |
11% |
9 |
12% |
10 |
13% |
11 |
14% |
12 |
16% |
13 |
18% |
14 |
19% |
15 |
21% |
16 |
24% |
17 |
26% |
18 |
28% |
19 |
31% |
20 |
34% |
21 |
37% |
22 |
41% |
23 |
44% |
24 |
48% |
25 |
51% |
26 |
55% |
27 |
59% |
28 |
63% |
29 |
67% |
30 |
71% |
31 |
75% |
If this data is entered into JMP, the following second order equation is derived:
risk of stroke in 5 years as a percent (from 0 to 100) =
= (0.074957 * ((points)^2)) - (0.07815 * (points)) + 6.019749
Specialty: Neurology
ICD-10: ,